Bearing Pointer: PVV in Dog greater than for others

The PVV remains in the weighted average of the major political polls do well. The Party of Geert Wilders is 33 to 39 Lower House seats by far the largest, but since the end of November did not rise further. One effect of the events in Cologne is still not possible to determine.

Gallup reported Sunday that the PVV in his Peil.nl for the first time the 40 seats has passed. The party of Geert Wilders has increased its poll three weeks from 39 seats to 41 seats.

Tom Louwerse, the creator of the Bearing Pointer, pointing out that this is not a significant increase. Two seats falls in the weekly poll Dog all within the margin of error is usually held at polls. You can according Louwerse only say that the poll Dog for the PVV pointing upwards.

Louwerse signals that the PVV in The Dog in a while a better score than the other level agencies. In the most recent Political Barometer, the PVV on 30 seats and EenVandaag and TNS Nipo at 33. The PVV is signed over the largest party, but otherwise there is much uncertainty about the extent of the PVV supporters.

According Louwerse his movements in voter preferences Dog often more severe than in other pillars. He thinks this is due to the composition of the Canine panel. Dog gauges preferred by people who themselves have signed him. It is to assume that the average follow politics more closely and more likely to change their preference in response to current events.

The Bearing Pointer is the VVD second with 20 to 25 seats. Then a group of three follows: CDA (16 to 20 seats), D66 (15-19) and the SP (14-18). They are followed by the PvdA (10-14) and GroenLinks (9-13), which since the appointment of Jesse Klaver as party leader of GroenLinks virtually unchanged on the go.

The left parties are followed by the Christian Union (5-7), 50Plus (3-7), the PvdD (2-4), the SGP (2-4) and VNL (0-1). Party Bram Moszkowicz seems to be little chance of a seat.

The CSS publishes a monthly Bearing Pointer. There are polls dePolitieke Barometer (Ipsos) Mood (EenVandaag) Peil.nl (Gallup), I & O Research enTNS Nipo Merged. More about the methodology behind the Bearing Pointer is available on the website of political scientist Tom Louwerse (Leiden University).

NOS.nl/ © Reuters