What if the majority says 'no' to the Ukraine referendum?
It is a question that the government still wants to give no answer. At the same time it is also a question that is difficult to give an answer.
With a "no" the ball is in Dutch politics. It is a consultative referendum; the outcome can therefore be ignored by politicians. The government, the House and the Senate must again bow after the referendum on the treaty.
Or a "no" outcome of the referendum is accepted, partly depends on the degree to which the 'no' sounds, says political reporter Xander van der Curlew NIS. "If sixty percent show up eighty percent of them are against, it gives a whole different dynamic than thirty percent show up and vote only against a narrow majority."
If less than thirty percent case, the referendum is not valid anyway and the government can disregard the results.
What the voter?
Occurs more than thirty percent showed up and the no-voters in the majority, then the voter politics must determine what exactly mean by a 'no'. Should the whole treaty table? Voters do not agree with any part of the contents? Or is it a vote against the European Union?
"The outcome of the referendum is so black and white that you do not know what exactly you have to change to meet the wishes of the voters," said professor of international public law Marcel Brus from the University of Groningen.
The political space to negotiate is very small.
Marcel Brus, professor of international public lawIf the government wants to respond to a 'No' vote, then the possibilities for it anyway limited.It is in effect a European convention: the Netherlands has the authority to negotiate on that, like other EU countries, largely outsourced to the European Union. "The political space to negotiate is very small," Brus said.
That 'European' part of the treaty, which is mainly about economics and trade, even if entered into force, to the dissatisfaction of opponents of the treaty. Even if the Netherlands voting against, is that simply funds, although this part is not formally addressed. The chance of being reversed, according to experts, small.
Human rights and corruption
The part of the treaty that part still falls under the jurisdiction of the Netherlands, contains passages on human rights, fight against corruption and a letter of intent to cooperate in the military field. That part can stop it: if the Netherlands does not ratify the treaty enters that part at least not in force in the Netherlands.
Netherlands ratification would then be able to block the EU, although, according to Peter van Elsuwege, Professor of European Law at the University of Ghent, not so likely. "It would be difficult to explain, since virtually identical agreements with Moldova and Georgia have been approved without problems."
That impasse could take a while, but is not ideal, says professor of constitutional law Voermans. "You with contempt then actually quite a bit the other 27 Member States which have ratified it," he says. A final solution is therefore desirable.
History shows that the EU does not leave quickly change direction by r eferenda.
Voermans, professor of constitutional law
Read the whole article at: http://nos.nl/artikel/2095391-wat-als-een-meerderheid-nee-zegt-bij-het-oekraine-referendum.html
http://nos.nl/ editorial NOS Photo: Reuters
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