We are one hundred and continue long vital

Now bring mayors still visit every hundred years, but the question is how long they maintain. 18-year-old women today have a chance to make the century of 17 percent full, around 1916 was only 2 percent. And fat chance that of the Dutch who today are born, in 2116 half is still alive.

What does that mean for society? For the family life, health care or retirement age? Nidi (Dutch Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute) organizes next two weeks with University of Groningen a lectures cycle and an exhibition on this theme: "100, and enjoy it '.

Is there any end to that rising life expectancy?
It keeps peering into a crystal ball, says Joop de Beer, Nidi's. "But the trend has been increasing. Every year we get there two months. Purely through to stay alive are we age. "

I did not know that a newborn had such a long life ahead. The life expectancy is now slightly above the eighty?
"That's right, but life expectancy is not a forecast. It is the average age of the people who are now deceased. But that forecast increases. If you want to get an idea of the age that the newborns will achieve from now, you need to estimate for life expectancy in 2050 and 2100. And life expectancy takes for years apply it evenly. It is obvious that line by pulling. "

That shouldn't? Perhaps the stretch it out.
"There are indeed experts who expect the trend flattens, but most assume that for the time being, he continues. The medicine has made enormous progress over the last century. The deaths caused by heart disease for example. The security-as in the traffic-has been improved, the air is cleaner, the work is less heavy. Certainly in the medicine is much profit, especially with therapies tailored. "

I meant actually the stand by a man himself. At some point the body. Don't you on one disease death, then the next is fatal.
"So long thought. As if a wall is where you beat that. But slide still further on that wall. Older people are more vital. The eighties by now is the 70 's of the past. And the 1990 ... At most, idea even for the 90-somethings. This group dies sometimes without a clear medical cause. At them seems more difficult medical progress, their life sometimes just on. "

Outlines you not a trend in an unchanging world? Do not also take account of global warming, with an economic crisis, with a new war maybe?
"That's right. Such a thing is not in the calculations. And in a hundred years time there can happen.

But at predictions it is often helpful to look back in time a hundred years. And then turn out the trends very steadily. There are dipjes in by the smoke behavior in the sixties. You see that in the Eastern bloc, when the wall had fallen, the mortality rose by alcoholism. But they are temporary dips. Even aids in Africa the trend has not.

"What we do really looked, is obesity. People are getting fatter. But it seems that this trend has little effect on mortality. Fat people get more health problems, but also the care is better so they not rather to death. "

Is that old age be a blessing? Many studies indicate that those extra years accompanied by defects.
"This is partly so. There will be more chronically ill. But that increase of illness also has to do with better registration. There is now more tested on blood pressure or cholesterol. Prostate cancer is more often noted.

"But if you ask to what people can still, then you see that they are active in old age. There are at those extra years many vital years. "

All in all a beautiful perspective.
"There are of course differences. Those with still have a worse life expectancy than people with tertiary education. Women are older than men. But the factor that makes the biggest difference, is your year of birth. Who now is born, is a lot older than a hundred years ago. "

By editorial Wedding: Joep English photo: thinkstock